According to the recent CNBC Delivering Alpha investor survey, a majority of Wall Street investors are of the opinion that stocks have entered a new bull market and that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession in 2023.
Over the past week, a survey was conducted among approximately 400 individuals, including chief investment officers, equity strategists, portfolio managers, and CNBC contributors who are responsible for managing money. The purpose of the survey was to gather insights and opinions on various market-related topics and investment strategies.
The participants represent a diverse group of professionals in the financial industry, providing valuable perspectives on the current state of the market and investment trends.
We asked them about their perspectives on the markets for the third quarter and beyond.
Based on the survey findings, 61% of the respondents hold the view that the market is currently in a new bull run, whereas 39% consider it to be a bear market rally. The opinions of the participants reflect a range of perspectives regarding the direction and potential trends of the market.
From a technical standpoint, some have already declared a new bull market after the S&P 500 index rose 20% from its bear market low in October.
However, there is a significant portion of investors who believe that a bear market is not considered to be over until the S&P 500 reaches a new high. According to their perspective, the market’s recovery is contingent upon the S&P 500 index surpassing its previous peak level. This criterion serves as an important milestone for determining the conclusion of a bear market phase.
The all-time closing high for the index is 4,796.56, while it closed at 4,396.44 on Thursday.
Despite various concerns such as rate hikes, a debt ceiling debate, and bank failures, the market has demonstrated resilience this year. The S&P 500 is poised to finish the first half strongly, with an impressive gain of nearly 15% and four consecutive months of growth. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite has performed even more impressively, surging 30% this year, fueled by Wall Street’s fascination with artificial intelligence.
Carol Schleif, Chief Investment Officer at the BMO Family Office, expressed optimism for U.S. stocks in the second half of 2023, citing improved market breadth as a key factor.
Despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate increases, the majority of investors believe that the economy will steer clear of a severe downturn, at least for this year. The Fed has raised rates at every meeting since March 2022, including four consecutive three-quarter point moves, before pausing in June.
Given the unique circumstances this time around, including an unprecedented pandemic and historic fiscal and monetary responses, many believe that the downturn experienced may be unlike any other in history.
Jason Draho, head of asset allocation Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, stated that in this unorthodox cycle, we should not anticipate a standard recession. Instead, the economy may encounter rolling recessions across different segments.
For the remainder of 2023, investors see potential for the best returns in short-term Treasurys, the S&P 500, and foreign stock markets such as Japan, China, and Europe.
Source : cnbc.com
